Weakening aerosol direct radiative effects mitigate climate penalty on Chinese air quality

Chaopeng Hong, Qiang Zhang (), Yang Zhang (), Steven J. Davis, Xin Zhang, Dan Tong, Dabo Guan, Zhu Liu and Kebin He
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Chaopeng Hong: Tsinghua University
Qiang Zhang: Tsinghua University
Yang Zhang: Northeastern University
Steven J. Davis: Tsinghua University
Xin Zhang: Tsinghua University
Dan Tong: Tsinghua University
Dabo Guan: Tsinghua University
Zhu Liu: Tsinghua University
Kebin He: Tsinghua University

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 9, 845-850

Abstract: Abstract Future climate change may worsen air quality in many regions. However, evaluations of this ‘climate penalty’ on air quality have typically not assessed the radiative effects of changes in short-lived aerosols. Additionally, China’s clean air goals will decrease pollutant emissions and aerosol loadings, with concomitant weakening of aerosol feedbacks. Here we assess how such weakened aerosol direct effects alter the estimates of air pollution and premature mortality in China attributable to mid-century climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5. We found that weakening aerosol direct effects cause boundary layer changes that facilitate diffusion. This reduces air-pollution exposure (~4% in fine particulate matter) and deaths (13,800 people per year), which largely offset the additional deaths caused by greenhouse gas-dominated warming. These results highlight the benefits of reduced pollutant emissions through weakening aerosol direct effects and underline the potential of pollution control measures to mitigate climate penalties locked in by greenhouse gas emissions.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0840-y

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