Short-lived climate forcers have long-term climate impacts via the carbon–climate feedback

Bo Fu, Thomas Gasser, Bengang Li (), Shu Tao, Philippe Ciais, Shilong Piao, Yves Balkanski, Wei Li, Tianya Yin, Luchao Han, Xinyue Li, Yunman Han, Jie An, Siyuan Peng and Jing Xu
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Bo Fu: Peking University
Thomas Gasser: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Bengang Li: Peking University
Shu Tao: Peking University
Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Yves Balkanski: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ
Wei Li: Peking University
Tianya Yin: Peking University
Luchao Han: Peking University
Xinyue Li: Peking University
Yunman Han: Peking University
Jie An: Peking University
Siyuan Peng: Peking University
Jing Xu: Peking University

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 9, 851-855

Abstract: Abstract Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) like methane, ozone and aerosols have a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2 and are often assumed to have a short-term effect on the climate system: should their emissions cease, so would their radiative forcing (RF). However, via their climate impact, SLCFs can affect carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2, causing additional climate change. Here, we use a compact Earth system model to attribute CO2 RF to direct CO2 emissions and to climate–carbon feedbacks since the pre-industrial era. We estimate the climate–carbon feedback contributed 93 ± 50 mW m−2 (~5%) to total RF of CO2 in 2010. Of this, SLCF impacts were −13 ± 50 mW m−2, made up of cooling (−115 ± 43 mW m−2) and warming (102 ± 26 mW m−2) terms that largely cancel. This study illustrates the long-term impact that short-lived species have on climate and indicates that past (and future) change in atmospheric CO2 cannot be attributed only to CO2 emissions.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0841-x

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