Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade

Charlotte Janssens (), Peter Havlik, Tamás Krisztin, Justin Baker, Stefan Frank, Tomoko Hasegawa, David Leclère, Sara Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth, Erwin Schmid, Hugo Valin, Nicole Van Lipzig and Miet Maertens
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Charlotte Janssens: University of Leuven (KU Leuven)
Justin Baker: RTI International
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Tomoko Hasegawa: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
David Leclère: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Sara Ohrel: United States Environmental Protection Agency
Shaun Ragnauth: United States Environmental Protection Agency
Erwin Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Hugo Valin: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Nicole Van Lipzig: University of Leuven (KU Leuven)
Miet Maertens: University of Leuven (KU Leuven)

Nature Climate Change, 2020, vol. 10, issue 9, 829-835

Abstract: Abstract International trade enables us to exploit regional differences in climate change impacts and is increasingly regarded as a potential adaptation mechanism. Here, we focus on hunger reduction through international trade under alternative trade scenarios for a wide range of climate futures. Under the current level of trade integration, climate change would lead to up to 55 million people who are undernourished in 2050. Without adaptation through trade, the impacts of global climate change would increase to 73 million people who are undernourished (+33%). Reduction in tariffs as well as institutional and infrastructural barriers would decrease the negative impact to 20 million (−64%) people. We assess the adaptation effect of trade and climate-induced specialization patterns. The adaptation effect is strongest for hunger-affected import-dependent regions. However, in hunger-affected export-oriented regions, partial trade integration can lead to increased exports at the expense of domestic food availability. Although trade integration is a key component of adaptation, it needs sensitive implementation to benefit all regions.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0847-4

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