Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems

Derek P. Tittensor (), Camilla Novaglio, Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Nicolas Barrier, Daniele Bianchi, Laurent Bopp, Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz, Gregory L. Britten, Matthias Büchner, William W. L. Cheung, Villy Christensen, Marta Coll, John P. Dunne, Tyler D. Eddy, Jason D. Everett, Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador, Elizabeth A. Fulton, Eric D. Galbraith, Didier Gascuel, Jerome Guiet, Jasmin G. John, Jason S. Link, Heike K. Lotze, Olivier Maury, Kelly Ortega-Cisneros, Juliano Palacios-Abrantes, Colleen M. Petrik, Hubert Pontavice, Jonathan Rault, Anthony J. Richardson, Lynne Shannon, Yunne-Jai Shin, Jeroen Steenbeek, Charles A. Stock and Julia L. Blanchard
Additional contact information
Derek P. Tittensor: Dalhousie University
Camilla Novaglio: University of Tasmania
Cheryl S. Harrison: University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Ryan F. Heneghan: Queensland University of Technology
Nicolas Barrier: Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS
Daniele Bianchi: University of California Los Angeles
Laurent Bopp: Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, Ecole Polytechnique
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz: Dalhousie University
Gregory L. Britten: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Matthias Büchner: Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
William W. L. Cheung: The University of British Columbia
Villy Christensen: The University of British Columbia
Marta Coll: Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC)
John P. Dunne: NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Tyler D. Eddy: Memorial University of Newfoundland
Jason D. Everett: The University of Queensland
Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador: AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)
Elizabeth A. Fulton: University of Tasmania
Eric D. Galbraith: McGill University
Didier Gascuel: UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae
Jerome Guiet: University of California Los Angeles
Jasmin G. John: NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Jason S. Link: NOAA Fisheries
Heike K. Lotze: Dalhousie University
Olivier Maury: Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS
Kelly Ortega-Cisneros: University of Cape Town
Juliano Palacios-Abrantes: The University of British Columbia
Colleen M. Petrik: Texas A&M University
Hubert Pontavice: UMR Ecology and Ecosystems Health (ESE), Institut Agro, Inrae
Jonathan Rault: Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS
Anthony J. Richardson: The University of Queensland
Lynne Shannon: University of Cape Town
Yunne-Jai Shin: Univ Montpellier, Ifremer, CNRS
Jeroen Steenbeek: Ecopath International Initiative Research Association
Charles A. Stock: NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Julia L. Blanchard: University of Tasmania

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 11, 973-981

Abstract: Abstract Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9

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