Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil

Ludmila Rattis (), Paulo M. Brando, Marcia N. Macedo, Stephanie A. Spera, Andrea D. A. Castanho, Eduardo Q. Marques, Nathane Q. Costa, Divino V. Silverio and Michael T. Coe
Additional contact information
Ludmila Rattis: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Paulo M. Brando: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Marcia N. Macedo: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Stephanie A. Spera: Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond
Andrea D. A. Castanho: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Eduardo Q. Marques: Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso
Nathane Q. Costa: Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia
Divino V. Silverio: Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia
Michael T. Coe: Woodwell Climate Research Center

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 12, 1098-1104

Abstract: Abstract Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development—a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry–hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying already have pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region’s agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01214-3

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