Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot

Keywan Riahi (), Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Laurent Drouet, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Leonidas Paroussos, Roberto Schaeffer, Matthias Weitzel, Bob Zwaan, Zoi Vrontisi, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mykola Gusti, Florian Humpenöder, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Larissa P. Nogueira, Ken Oshiro, Alexander Popp, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Gamze Ünlü, Bas van Ruijven, Junya Takakura, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef Vuuren and Behnam Zakeri
Additional contact information
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Christoph Bertram: Member of the Leibniz Association
Daniel Huppmann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Joeri Rogelj: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Anique-Marie Cabardos: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Andre Deppermann: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Laurent Drouet: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Tomoko Hasegawa: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Gunnar Luderer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Roberto Schaeffer: COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Bob Zwaan: TNO Energy Transition
Zoi Vrontisi: E3Modelling
Francesco Dalla Longa: TNO Energy Transition
Florian Fosse: Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Mykola Gusti: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Florian Humpenöder: Member of the Leibniz Association
Paul Kishimoto: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Malte Meinshausen: Member of the Leibniz Association
Larissa P. Nogueira: TNO Energy Transition
Ken Oshiro: Kyoto University, Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku
Alexander Popp: Member of the Leibniz Association
Pedro R. R. Rochedo: COPPE, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Gamze Ünlü: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Junya Takakura: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Massimo Tavoni: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Behnam Zakeri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 12, 1063-1069

Abstract: Abstract Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (26)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2

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