Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

Laurent Drouet (), Valentina Bosetti, Simone A. Padoan, Lara Aleluia Reis, Christoph Bertram, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Volker Krey, Ken Oshiro, Larissa P. Nogueira, Leonidas Paroussos, Franziska Piontek, Keywan Riahi, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Jun’ya Takakura, Kaj-Ivar Wijst, Bob Zwaan, Detlef Vuuren, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Behnam Zakeri and Massimo Tavoni
Additional contact information
Laurent Drouet: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Simone A. Padoan: Bocconi University of Milan and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Lara Aleluia Reis: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Christoph Bertram: Member of the Leibniz Association
Francesco Dalla Longa: TNO Energy Transition
Johannes Emmerling: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici
Florian Fosse: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Stefan Frank: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Oliver Fricko: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Shinichiro Fujimori: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Mathijs Harmsen: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Ken Oshiro: Kyoto University
Larissa P. Nogueira: TNO Energy Transition
Franziska Piontek: Member of the Leibniz Association
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Pedro R. R. Rochedo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Jun’ya Takakura: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Kaj-Ivar Wijst: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Bob Zwaan: TNO Energy Transition
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Zoi Vrontisi: E3Modelling
Behnam Zakeri: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Massimo Tavoni: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 12, 1070-1076

Abstract: Abstract Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z

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