Opposite response of strong and moderate positive Indian Ocean Dipole to global warming

Wenju Cai (), Kai Yang, Lixin Wu (), Gang Huang, Agus Santoso, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang and Toshio Yamagata
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Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Kai Yang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Gang Huang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Agus Santoso: Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Benjamin Ng: Center for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Guojian Wang: Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Toshio Yamagata: Application Laboratory, JAMSTEC

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 1, 27-32

Abstract: Abstract A strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) induces weather extremes such as the 2019 Australian bushfires and African floods. The impact is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST), yet models disagree on how pIOD SST may respond to greenhouse warming. Here we find increased SST variability of strong pIOD events, with strong equatorial eastern Indian Ocean cool anomalies, but decreased variability of moderate pIOD events, dominated by western warm anomalies. This opposite response is detected in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) climate models that simulate the two pIOD regimes. Under greenhouse warming, the lower troposphere warms faster than the surface, limiting Ekman pumping that drives the moderate pIOD warm anomalies; however, faster surface warming in the equatorial western region favours atmospheric convection in the west, strengthening equatorial nonlinear advection that forces the strong pIOD cool anomalies. Climate extremes seen in 2019 are therefore likely to occur more frequently under greenhouse warming.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00943-1

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