Expert assessment of future vulnerability of the global peatland carbon sink

J. Loisel (), A. V. Gallego-Sala (), M. J. Amesbury, G. Magnan, G. Anshari, D. W. Beilman, J. C. Benavides, J. Blewett, P. Camill, D. J. Charman, S. Chawchai, A. Hedgpeth, T. Kleinen, A. Korhola, D. Large, C. A. Mansilla, J. Müller, S. Bellen, J. B. West, Z. Yu, J. L. Bubier, M. Garneau, T. Moore, A. B. K. Sannel, S. Page, M. Väliranta, M. Bechtold, V. Brovkin, L. E. S. Cole, J. P. Chanton, T. R. Christensen, M. A. Davies, F. Vleeschouwer, S. A. Finkelstein, S. Frolking, M. Gałka, L. Gandois, N. Girkin, L. I. Harris, A. Heinemeyer, A. M. Hoyt, M. C. Jones, F. Joos, S. Juutinen, K. Kaiser, T. Lacourse, M. Lamentowicz, T. Larmola, J. Leifeld, A. Lohila, A. M. Milner, K. Minkkinen, P. Moss, B. D. A. Naafs, J. Nichols, J. O’Donnell, R. Payne, M. Philben, S. Piilo, A. Quillet, A. S. Ratnayake, T. P. Roland, S. Sjögersten, O. Sonnentag, G. T. Swindles, W. Swinnen, J. Talbot, C. Treat, A. C. Valach and J. Wu
Additional contact information
J. Loisel: Texas A&M University
A. V. Gallego-Sala: University of Exeter
M. J. Amesbury: University of Exeter
G. Magnan: University of Quebec at Montreal
G. Anshari: Tanjungpura University
D. W. Beilman: University of Hawaii at Manoa
J. C. Benavides: Pontificial Xavierian University
J. Blewett: University of Bristol
P. Camill: Bowdoin College
D. J. Charman: University of Exeter
S. Chawchai: Chulalongkorn University
A. Hedgpeth: University of California, Los Angeles
T. Kleinen: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
A. Korhola: University of Helsinki
D. Large: University of Nottingham
C. A. Mansilla: University of Magallanes
J. Müller: University of Bern
S. Bellen: Université de Montréal
J. B. West: Texas A&M University
Z. Yu: Lehigh University
J. L. Bubier: Department of Environmental Studies, Mount Holyoke College
M. Garneau: University of Quebec at Montreal
T. Moore: McGill University
A. B. K. Sannel: Stockholm University
S. Page: University of Leicester
M. Väliranta: University of Helsinki
M. Bechtold: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven
V. Brovkin: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
L. E. S. Cole: University of St Andrews
J. P. Chanton: Florida State University
T. R. Christensen: Aarhus University
M. A. Davies: University of Toronto
F. Vleeschouwer: Instituto Franco-Argentino para el Estudio del Clima y sus Impactos
S. A. Finkelstein: University of Toronto
S. Frolking: University of New Hampshire
M. Gałka: University of Lodz
L. Gandois: Laboratoire d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, UMR 5245, CNRS-UPS-INPT
N. Girkin: Cranfield University
L. I. Harris: University of Alberta
A. Heinemeyer: University of York
A. M. Hoyt: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
M. C. Jones: Florence Bascom Geoscience Center, United States Geological Survey
F. Joos: University of Bern
S. Juutinen: University of Helsinki
K. Kaiser: Texas A&M University at Galveston
T. Lacourse: University of Victoria
M. Lamentowicz: Adam Mickiewicz University
T. Larmola: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke)
J. Leifeld: Agroscope
A. Lohila: University of Helsinki
A. M. Milner: University of London
K. Minkkinen: University of Helsinki
P. Moss: University of Queensland
B. D. A. Naafs: University of Bristol
J. Nichols: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
J. O’Donnell: National Park Service
R. Payne: University of York
M. Philben: Department of Chemistry, and Department of Geological and Environmental Science, Hope College
S. Piilo: University of Helsinki
A. Quillet: University of Reading
A. S. Ratnayake: Uva Wellassa University
T. P. Roland: University of Exeter
S. Sjögersten: University of Nottingham
O. Sonnentag: Université de Montréal
G. T. Swindles: Queen’s University Belfast
W. Swinnen: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven
J. Talbot: Université de Montréal
C. Treat: University of New Hampshire
A. C. Valach: University of California, Berkeley
J. Wu: Memorial University

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 1, 70-77

Abstract: Abstract The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00944-0

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