Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect

Chen Zhou (), Mark D. Zelinka, Andrew E. Dessler and Minghuai Wang
Additional contact information
Chen Zhou: Nanjing University
Mark D. Zelinka: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Andrew E. Dessler: Texas A&M University
Minghuai Wang: Nanjing University

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 2, 132-136

Abstract: Abstract Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x

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