Global multi-model projections of local urban climates

Lei Zhao (), Keith Oleson, Elie Bou-Zeid, E. Scott Krayenhoff, Andrew Bray, Qing Zhu, Zhonghua Zheng, Chen Chen and Michael Oppenheimer
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Lei Zhao: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Keith Oleson: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Elie Bou-Zeid: Princeton University
E. Scott Krayenhoff: University of Guelph
Andrew Bray: Reed College
Qing Zhu: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Zhonghua Zheng: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Chen Chen: Centre for Climate Research
Michael Oppenheimer: Princeton University

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 2, 152-157

Abstract: Abstract Effective urban planning for climate-driven risks relies on robust climate projections specific to built landscapes. Such projections are absent because of a near-universal lack of urban representation in global-scale Earth system models. Here, we combine climate modelling and data-driven approaches to provide global multi-model projections of urban climates over the twenty-first century. The results demonstrate the inter-model robustness of specific levels of urban warming over certain regions under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, cities in the United States, Middle East, northern Central Asia, northeastern China and inland South America and Africa are estimated to experience substantial warming of more than 4 K—larger than regional warming—by the end of the century, with high inter-model confidence. Our findings highlight the critical need for multi-model global projections of local urban climates for climate-sensitive development and support green infrastructure intervention as an effective means of reducing urban heat stress on large scales.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00958-8

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