Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change

Antonios Mamalakis (), James T. Randerson, Jin-Yi Yu, Michael S. Pritchard, Gudrun Magnusdottir, Padhraic Smyth, Paul A. Levine, Sungduk Yu and Efi Foufoula-Georgiou ()
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Antonios Mamalakis: University of California
James T. Randerson: University of California
Jin-Yi Yu: University of California
Michael S. Pritchard: University of California
Gudrun Magnusdottir: University of California
Padhraic Smyth: University of California
Paul A. Levine: University of California
Sungduk Yu: Yale University
Efi Foufoula-Georgiou: University of California

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 2, 143-151

Abstract: Abstract Future changes in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ; a narrow band of heavy precipitation in the tropics) with climate change could affect the livelihood and food security of billions of people. Although models predict a future narrowing of the ITCZ, uncertainties remain large regarding its future position, with most past work focusing on zonal-mean shifts. Here we use projections from 27 state-of-the-art climate models and document a robust zonally varying ITCZ response to the SSP3-7.0 scenario by 2100, with a northward shift over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and a southward shift in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The zonally varying response is consistent with changes in the divergent atmospheric energy transport and sector-mean shifts of the energy flux equator. Our analysis provides insight about mechanisms influencing the future position of the tropical rain belt and may allow for more-robust projections of climate change impacts.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x

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