Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Nathan P. Gillett (), Megan Kirchmeier-Young, Aurélien Ribes, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Guillaume Gastineau, Jasmin G. John, Lijuan Li, Larissa Nazarenko, Nan Rosenbloom, Øyvind Seland, Tongwen Wu, Seiji Yukimoto and Tilo Ziehn
Additional contact information
Nathan P. Gillett: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Megan Kirchmeier-Young: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Aurélien Ribes: CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS
Hideo Shiogama: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Gabriele C. Hegerl: University of Edinburgh
Reto Knutti: ETH Zurich
Guillaume Gastineau: Sorbonne Université, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
Jasmin G. John: NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Lijuan Li: Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Larissa Nazarenko: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Nan Rosenbloom: NCAR
Øyvind Seland: Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Tongwen Wu: China Meteorological Administration
Seiji Yukimoto: Meteorological Research Institute
Tilo Ziehn: CSIRO

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 207-212

Abstract: Abstract Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9

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