Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Tomas Roslin (), Laura Antão, Maria Hällfors, Evgeniy Meyke, Coong Lo, Gleb Tikhonov, Maria del Mar Delgado, Eliezer Gurarie, Marina Abadonova, Ozodbek Abduraimov, Olga Adrianova, Tatiana Akimova, Muzhigit Akkiev, Aleksandr Ananin, Elena Andreeva, Natalia Andriychuk, Maxim Antipin, Konstantin Arzamascev, Svetlana Babina, Miroslav Babushkin, Oleg Bakin, Anna Barabancova, Inna Basilskaja, Nina Belova, Natalia Belyaeva, Tatjana Bespalova, Evgeniya Bisikalova, Anatoly Bobretsov, Vladimir Bobrov, Vadim Bobrovskyi, Elena Bochkareva, Gennady Bogdanov, Vladimir Bolshakov, Svetlana Bondarchuk, Evgeniya Bukharova, Alena Butunina, Yuri Buyvolov, Anna Buyvolova, Yuri Bykov, Elena Chakhireva, Olga Chashchina, Nadezhda Cherenkova, Sergej Chistjakov, Svetlana Chuhontseva, Evgeniy A. Davydov, Viktor Demchenko, Elena Diadicheva, Aleksandr Dobrolyubov, Ludmila Dostoyevskaya, Svetlana Drovnina, Zoya Drozdova, Akynaly Dubanaev, Yuriy Dubrovsky, Sergey Elsukov, Lidia Epova, Olga Ermakova, Olga S. Ermakova, Elena Ershkova, Aleksandra Esengeldenova, Oleg Evstigneev, Irina Fedchenko, Violetta Fedotova, Tatiana Filatova, Sergey Gashev, Anatoliy Gavrilov, Irina Gaydysh, Dmitrij Golovcov, Nadezhda Goncharova, Elena Gorbunova, Tatyana Gordeeva, Vitaly Grishchenko, Ludmila Gromyko, Vladimir Hohryakov, Alexander Hritankov, Elena Ignatenko, Svetlana Igosheva, Uliya Ivanova, Natalya Ivanova, Yury Kalinkin, Evgeniya Kaygorodova, Fedor Kazansky, Darya Kiseleva, Anastasia Knorre, Leonid Kolpashikov, Evgenii Korobov, Helen Korolyova, Natalia Korotkikh, Gennadiy Kosenkov, Sergey Kossenko, Elvira Kotlugalyamova, Evgeny Kozlovsky, Vladimir Kozsheechkin, Alla Kozurak, Irina Kozyr, Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva, Sergey Kruglikov, Olga Kuberskaya, Aleksey Kudryavtsev, Elena Kulebyakina, Yuliia Kulsha, Margarita Kupriyanova, Murad Kurbanbagamaev, Anatoliy Kutenkov, Nadezhda Kutenkova, Nadezhda Kuyantseva, Andrey Kuznetsov, Evgeniy Larin, Pavel Lebedev, Kirill Litvinov, Natalia Luzhkova, Azizbek Mahmudov, Lidiya Makovkina, Viktor Mamontov, Svetlana Mayorova, Irina Megalinskaja, Artur Meydus, Aleksandr Minin, Oleg Mitrofanov, Mykhailo Motruk, Aleksandr Myslenkov, Nina Nasonova, Natalia Nemtseva, Irina Nesterova, Tamara Nezdoliy, Tatyana Niroda, Tatiana Novikova, Darya Panicheva, Alexey Pavlov, Klara Pavlova, Sergei Podolski, Natalja Polikarpova, Tatiana Polyanskaya, Igor Pospelov, Elena Pospelova, Ilya Prokhorov, Irina Prokosheva, Lyudmila Puchnina, Ivan Putrashyk, Julia Raiskaya, Yuri Rozhkov, Olga Rozhkova, Marina Rudenko, Irina Rybnikova, Svetlana Rykova, Miroslava Sahnevich, Alexander Samoylov, Valeri Sanko, Inna Sapelnikova, Sergei Sazonov, Zoya Selyunina, Ksenia Shalaeva, Maksim Shashkov, Anatoliy Shcherbakov, Vasyl Shevchyk, Sergej Shubin, Elena Shujskaja, Rustam Sibgatullin, Natalia Sikkila, Elena Sitnikova, Andrei Sivkov, Nataliya Skok, Svetlana Skorokhodova, Elena Smirnova, Galina Sokolova, Vladimir Sopin, Yurii Spasovski, Sergei Stepanov, Vitalіy Stratiy, Violetta Strekalovskaya, Alexander Sukhov, Guzalya Suleymanova, Lilija Sultangareeva, Viktorija Teleganova, Viktor Teplov, Valentina Teplova, Tatiana Tertitsa, Vladislav Timoshkin, Dmitry Tirski, Andrej Tolmachev, Aleksey Tomilin, Ludmila Tselishcheva, Mirabdulla Turgunov, Yurij Tyukh, Polina Van, Vladimir Van, Aleksander Vasin, Aleksandra Vasina, Anatoliy Vekliuk, Lidia Vetchinnikova, Vladislav Vinogradov, Nikolay Volodchenkov, Inna Voloshina, Tura Xoliqov, Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko, Vladimir Yakovlev, Marina Yakovleva, Oksana Yantser, Yurij Yarema, Andrey Zahvatov, Valery Zakharov, Nicolay Zelenetskiy, Anatolii Zheltukhin, Tatyana Zubina, Juri Kurhinen and Otso Ovaskainen
Additional contact information
Tomas Roslin: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Laura Antão: University of Helsinki
Maria Hällfors: University of Helsinki
Evgeniy Meyke: EarthCape OY
Coong Lo: University of Helsinki
Gleb Tikhonov: Aalto University
Maria del Mar Delgado: Oviedo University
Eliezer Gurarie: University of Maryland
Marina Abadonova: National Park Orlovskoe Polesie
Ozodbek Abduraimov: Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Olga Adrianova: Kostomuksha Nature Reserve
Tatiana Akimova: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Muzhigit Akkiev: Kabardino-Balkarski Nature Reserve
Aleksandr Ananin: FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye
Elena Andreeva: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Natalia Andriychuk: Carpathian Biosphere Reserve
Maxim Antipin: Nizhne-Svirsky State Nature Reserve
Konstantin Arzamascev: State Nature Reserve Prisursky
Svetlana Babina: Zapovednoe Pribajkalje (Bajkalo-Lensky State Nature Reserve, Pribajkalsky National Park)
Miroslav Babushkin: Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Oleg Bakin: Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve
Anna Barabancova: FGBU National Park Shushenskiy Bor
Inna Basilskaja: Voronezhsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Nina Belova: Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Natalia Belyaeva: Visimsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Tatjana Bespalova: Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
Evgeniya Bisikalova: FSBI United Administration of the Kedrovaya Pad’ State Biosphere Nature Reserve and Leopard’s Land National Park
Anatoly Bobretsov: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Vladimir Bobrov: A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution
Vadim Bobrovskyi: FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye
Elena Bochkareva: Tigirek State Nature Reserve
Gennady Bogdanov: State Nature Reserve Bolshaya Kokshaga
Vladimir Bolshakov: Russian Academy of Sciences
Svetlana Bondarchuk: Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
Evgeniya Bukharova: FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye
Alena Butunina: Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
Yuri Buyvolov: FSBI Prioksko-Terrasniy State Reserve
Anna Buyvolova: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Yuri Bykov: National Park Meshchera
Elena Chakhireva: Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve
Olga Chashchina: Russian Academy of Sciences
Nadezhda Cherenkova: FGBU National Park Kenozersky
Sergej Chistjakov: FGBU GPZ Kologrivskij les im. M.G. Sinicina
Svetlana Chuhontseva: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Evgeniy A. Davydov: Tigirek State Nature Reserve
Viktor Demchenko: Pryazovskyi National Nature Park
Elena Diadicheva: Pryazovskyi National Nature Park
Aleksandr Dobrolyubov: State Nature Reserve Privolzhskaya Lesostep
Ludmila Dostoyevskaya: Russian Academy of Sciences
Svetlana Drovnina: FGBU National Park Kenozersky
Zoya Drozdova: National Park Meshchera
Akynaly Dubanaev: Sary-Chelek State Nature Reserve
Yuriy Dubrovsky: Institute for Evolutionary Ecology NAS Ukraine
Sergey Elsukov: Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
Lidia Epova: FGBU State Nature Reserve Kuznetsk Alatau
Olga Ermakova: Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Olga S. Ermakova: Kerzhenskiy State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Elena Ershkova: FSBI United Administration of the Mordovia State Nature Reserve and National Park Smolny, Republic of Mordovia
Aleksandra Esengeldenova: Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
Oleg Evstigneev: Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Irina Fedchenko: Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve
Violetta Fedotova: Russian Academy of Sciences
Tatiana Filatova: The Central Chernozem State Biosphere Nature Reserve named after Professor V.V. Alyokhin
Sergey Gashev: Tyumen State University
Anatoliy Gavrilov: Reserves of Taimyr
Irina Gaydysh: Kostomuksha Nature Reserve
Dmitrij Golovcov: Chatkalski National Park
Nadezhda Goncharova: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Elena Gorbunova: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Tatyana Gordeeva: National Park Ugra
Vitaly Grishchenko: Kaniv Nature Reserve
Ludmila Gromyko: Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
Vladimir Hohryakov: Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park
Alexander Hritankov: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Elena Ignatenko: FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve
Svetlana Igosheva: Polistovsky State Nature Reserve
Uliya Ivanova: Ural State Pedagogical University
Natalya Ivanova: Russian Academy of Sciences
Yury Kalinkin: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Evgeniya Kaygorodova: Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Fedor Kazansky: Kronotsky Federal Nature Biosphere Reserve
Darya Kiseleva: Zhiguli Nature Reserve
Anastasia Knorre: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Leonid Kolpashikov: Reserves of Taimyr
Evgenii Korobov: Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Helen Korolyova: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Natalia Korotkikh: Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
Gennadiy Kosenkov: Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park
Sergey Kossenko: Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Elvira Kotlugalyamova: National Park Bashkirija
Evgeny Kozlovsky: State Nature Reserve Kurilsky
Vladimir Kozsheechkin: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Alla Kozurak: Carpathian Biosphere Reserve
Irina Kozyr: Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Aleksandra Krasnopevtseva: Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Sergey Kruglikov: Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Olga Kuberskaya: FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye
Aleksey Kudryavtsev: State Nature Reserve Privolzhskaya Lesostep
Elena Kulebyakina: Vodlozersky National Park, Karelia
Yuliia Kulsha: Kaniv Nature Reserve
Margarita Kupriyanova: Ural State Pedagogical University
Murad Kurbanbagamaev: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Anatoliy Kutenkov: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Nadezhda Kutenkova: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Nadezhda Kuyantseva: Russian Academy of Sciences
Andrey Kuznetsov: Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Evgeniy Larin: Kondinskie Lakes National Park named after L. F. Stashkevich
Pavel Lebedev: Russian Academy of Sciences
Kirill Litvinov: Astrakhan Biosphere Reserve
Natalia Luzhkova: FSE Zapovednoe Podlemorye
Azizbek Mahmudov: Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Lidiya Makovkina: FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra
Viktor Mamontov: Vodlozersky National Park, Karelia
Svetlana Mayorova: National Park Meshchera
Irina Megalinskaja: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Artur Meydus: State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy
Aleksandr Minin: Russian Academy of Sciences
Oleg Mitrofanov: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Mykhailo Motruk: Carpathian National Nature Park
Aleksandr Myslenkov: FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra
Nina Nasonova: State Environmental Institution National Park Braslav lakes
Natalia Nemtseva: Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Irina Nesterova: Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
Tamara Nezdoliy: Ural State Pedagogical University
Tatyana Niroda: National Park Synevyr
Tatiana Novikova: Polistovsky State Nature Reserve
Darya Panicheva: Kronotsky Federal Nature Biosphere Reserve
Alexey Pavlov: Volzhsko-Kamsky National Nature Biosphere Rezerve
Klara Pavlova: FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve
Sergei Podolski: FSBI Zeya State Nature Reserve
Natalja Polikarpova: Pasvik State Nature Reserve
Tatiana Polyanskaya: Mari Chodra National Park
Igor Pospelov: A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution
Elena Pospelova: Reserves of Taimyr
Ilya Prokhorov: Lomonosov Moscow State University
Irina Prokosheva: State Nature Reserve Vishersky
Lyudmila Puchnina: Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve
Ivan Putrashyk: National Park Synevyr
Julia Raiskaya: State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy
Yuri Rozhkov: State Nature Reserve Olekminsky
Olga Rozhkova: State Nature Reserve Olekminsky
Marina Rudenko: Crimea Nature Reserve
Irina Rybnikova: Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Svetlana Rykova: Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve
Miroslava Sahnevich: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Alexander Samoylov: FGBU National Park Kenozersky
Valeri Sanko: Pryazovskyi National Nature Park
Inna Sapelnikova: Voronezhsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Sergei Sazonov: Russian Academy of Sciences
Zoya Selyunina: Black Sea Biosphere Reserve
Ksenia Shalaeva: Smolenskoe Poozerje National Park
Maksim Shashkov: Russian Academy of Sciences
Anatoliy Shcherbakov: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Vasyl Shevchyk: Kaniv Nature Reserve
Sergej Shubin: State Nature Reserve Nurgush
Elena Shujskaja: Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Rustam Sibgatullin: Visimsky Nature Biosphere Reserve
Natalia Sikkila: Kostomuksha Nature Reserve
Elena Sitnikova: Bryansk Forest Nature Reserve
Andrei Sivkov: Pinezhsky State Nature Reserve
Nataliya Skok: Ural State Pedagogical University
Svetlana Skorokhodova: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Elena Smirnova: Sikhote-Alin State Nature Biosphere Reserve named after K. G. Abramov
Galina Sokolova: FSBI Prioksko-Terrasniy State Reserve
Vladimir Sopin: State Nature Reserve Tungusskiy
Yurii Spasovski: Caucasian State Biosphere Reserve of the Ministry of Natural Resources
Sergei Stepanov: Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Vitalіy Stratiy: National Nature Park Vyzhnytskiy
Violetta Strekalovskaya: Reserves of Taimyr
Alexander Sukhov: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Guzalya Suleymanova: National Park Khvalynsky
Lilija Sultangareeva: National Park Bashkirija
Viktorija Teleganova: National Park Ugra
Viktor Teplov: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Valentina Teplova: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Tatiana Tertitsa: Pechoro-Ilych State Nature Reserve
Vladislav Timoshkin: State Nature Reserve Stolby
Dmitry Tirski: State Nature Reserve Olekminsky
Andrej Tolmachev: FGBU National Park Shushenskiy Bor
Aleksey Tomilin: State Research Center Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Ludmila Tselishcheva: State Nature Reserve Nurgush
Mirabdulla Turgunov: Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Yurij Tyukh: National Park Synevyr
Polina Van: FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye
Vladimir Van: FGBU Zapovednoye Priamurye
Aleksander Vasin: State Nature Reserve Malaya Sosva
Aleksandra Vasina: State Nature Reserve Malaya Sosva
Anatoliy Vekliuk: Carpathian Biosphere Reserve
Lidia Vetchinnikova: Russian Academy of Sciences
Vladislav Vinogradov: Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after Prof. V.F.Voino-Yasenetsky
Nikolay Volodchenkov: Baikalsky State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Inna Voloshina: FSBI United Administration of the Lazovsky State Reserve and National Park Zov Tigra
Tura Xoliqov: Surhanskiy State Nature Reserve
Eugenia Yablonovska-Grishchenko: Kaniv Nature Reserve
Vladimir Yakovlev: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Marina Yakovleva: State Nature Reserve Kivach
Oksana Yantser: Ural State Pedagogical University
Yurij Yarema: National Park Synevyr
Andrey Zahvatov: Mordovia State Nature Reserve
Valery Zakharov: Russian Academy of Sciences
Nicolay Zelenetskiy: Darwin Nature Biosphere Reserve
Anatolii Zheltukhin: Central Forest State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Tatyana Zubina: Altai State Nature Biosphere Reserve
Juri Kurhinen: University of Helsinki
Otso Ovaskainen: University of Helsinki

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 241-248

Abstract: Abstract Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00967-7

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