Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change

Yadu Pokhrel (), Farshid Felfelani, Yusuke Satoh, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Anne Gädeke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Naota Hanasaki, Hyungjun Kim, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Junguo Liu, Lamprini Papadimitriou, Jacob Schewe, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Wim Thiery, Ted Veldkamp, Fang Zhao and Yoshihide Wada
Additional contact information
Yadu Pokhrel: Michigan State University
Farshid Felfelani: Michigan State University
Yusuke Satoh: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Julien Boulange: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Peter Burek: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Anne Gädeke: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Dieter Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Simon N. Gosling: University of Nottingham
Manolis Grillakis: Technical University of Crete
Lukas Gudmundsson: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Naota Hanasaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Hyungjun Kim: The University of Tokyo
Aristeidis Koutroulis: Technical University of Crete
Junguo Liu: Southern University of Science and Technology
Lamprini Papadimitriou: Cranfield University
Jacob Schewe: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Hannes Müller Schmied: Goethe-University Frankfurt
Tobias Stacke: Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG)
Camelia-Eliza Telteu: Goethe-University Frankfurt
Wim Thiery: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
Ted Veldkamp: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Fang Zhao: East China Normal University
Yoshihide Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 3, 226-233

Abstract: Abstract Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. Here, using ensemble hydrological simulations, we show that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong inter-ensemble agreement indicates high confidence in the projected changes that are driven primarily by climate forcing rather than land and water management activities. Declines in TWS translate to increases in future droughts. By the late twenty-first century, the global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976–2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation to avoid adverse TWS impacts and increased droughts, and the need for improved water resource management and adaptation.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w

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