A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions

Shinichiro Fujimori (), Volker Krey, Detlef Vuuren, Ken Oshiro, Masahiro Sugiyama, Puttipong Chunark, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shivika Mittal, Osamu Nishiura, Chan Park, Salony Rajbhandari, Diego Silva Herran, Tran Thanh Tu, Shiya Zhao, Yuki Ochi, Priyardarshi R. Shukla, Toshihiko Masui, Phuong V. H. Nguyen, Anique-Marie Cabardos and Keywan Riahi
Additional contact information
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Volker Krey: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Detlef Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Ken Oshiro: Kyoto University
Masahiro Sugiyama: The University of Tokyo
Puttipong Chunark: Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU)
Bundit Limmeechokchai: Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU)
Shivika Mittal: Imperial College London
Osamu Nishiura: Kyoto University
Chan Park: University of Seoul
Salony Rajbhandari: Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT), Thammasat University (TU)
Diego Silva Herran: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Tran Thanh Tu: International University–Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City
Shiya Zhao: Kyoto University
Yuki Ochi: E-Konzal
Priyardarshi R. Shukla: Ahmedabad University
Toshihiko Masui: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Phuong V. H. Nguyen: Ho Chi Minh City University of Food Industry
Anique-Marie Cabardos: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
Keywan Riahi: International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 6, 472-480

Abstract: Abstract National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years.

Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01048-z

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