The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M.; Scovronick, N.; Sera, F.; Royé, D.; Schneider, R.; Tobias, A.; Astrom, C.; Guo, Y.; Honda, Y.; Hondula, D. M.; Abrutzky, R.; Tong, S.; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, M.; Saldiva, P. H. Nascimento; Lavigne, E.; Correa, P. Matus; Valdes, Nicolas; Kan, H.; Osorio, S.; Kyselý, J.; Urban, A.; Orru, H.; Indermitte, E.; Jaakkola, J. J. K.; Ryti, N.; Pascal, M.; Schneider, A.; Katsouyanni, K.; Samoli, E.; Mayvaneh, F.; Entezari, A.; Goodman, P.; Zeka, A.; Michelozzi, P.; de’Donato, F.; Hashizume, M.; Alahmad, B.; Diaz, M. Hurtado; De La Cruz Valencia, C.; Overcenco, A.; Houthuijs, D.; Ameling, C.; Rao, S.; Ruscio, F.; Carrasco-Escobar, G.; Seposo, X.; Silva, S.; Madureira, J.; Holobaca, I. H.; Fratianni, S.; Acquaotta, F.; Kim, H.; Lee, W.; Iniguez, C.; Forsberg, B.; Ragettli, M. S.; Guo, Y. L. L.; Chen, B. Y.; Li, S.; Armstrong, B.; Aleman, A.; Zanobetti, A.; Schwartz, J.; Dang, T. N.; Dung, D. V.; Gillett, N.; Haines, A.; Mengel, M.; Huber, V.; Gasparrini, A.

The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera (), N. Scovronick, F. Sera, D. Royé, R. Schneider, A. Tobias, C. Astrom, Y. Guo, Y. Honda, D. M. Hondula, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong, M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, P. H. Nascimento Saldiva, E. Lavigne, P. Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes (), H. Kan, S. Osorio, J. Kyselý, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J. K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti, M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de’Donato, M. Hashizume, B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Diaz, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco, D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva, J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim, W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsberg, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L. L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber and A. Gasparrini ()
Additional contact information
A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera: University of Bern
N. Scovronick: Emory University
F. Sera: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
D. Royé: University of Santiago de Compostela
R. Schneider: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
A. Tobias: Spanish Council for Scientific Research
C. Astrom: Umeå University
Y. Guo: Monash University
Y. Honda: University of Tsukuba
D. M. Hondula: Arizona State University
R. Abrutzky: Universidad de Buenos Aires
S. Tong: Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine
M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho: University of São Paulo
P. H. Nascimento Saldiva: University of São Paulo
E. Lavigne: Health Canada
P. Matus Correa: Universidad de los Andes
H. Kan: Fudan University
S. Osorio: University of São Paulo
J. Kyselý: Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences
A. Urban: Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences
H. Orru: University of Tartu
E. Indermitte: University of Tartu
J. J. K. Jaakkola: University of Oulu
N. Ryti: University of Oulu
M. Pascal: French National Public Health Agency
A. Schneider: Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH)
K. Katsouyanni: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
E. Samoli: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
F. Mayvaneh: Hakim Sabzevari University
A. Entezari: Hakim Sabzevari University
P. Goodman: Technological University Dublin
A. Zeka: Brunel University London
P. Michelozzi: Lazio Regional Health Service
F. de’Donato: Lazio Regional Health Service
M. Hashizume: The University of Tokyo
B. Alahmad: Harvard University
M. Hurtado Diaz: National Institute of Public Health
C. De La Cruz Valencia: National Institute of Public Health
A. Overcenco: National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health
D. Houthuijs: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
C. Ameling: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)
S. Rao: Norwegian Institute of Public Health
F. Ruscio: Norwegian Institute of Public Health
G. Carrasco-Escobar: Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia
X. Seposo: Kyoto University
S. Silva: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge
J. Madureira: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge
I. H. Holobaca: Babes-Bolay University
S. Fratianni: University of Torino
F. Acquaotta: University of Torino
H. Kim: Seoul National University
W. Lee: Seoul National University
C. Iniguez: CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)
B. Forsberg: Umeå University
M. S. Ragettli: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
Y. L. L. Guo: National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital
B. Y. Chen: National Health Research Institutes
S. Li: Monash University
B. Armstrong: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
A. Aleman: University of the Republic
A. Zanobetti: Harvard University
J. Schwartz: Harvard University
T. N. Dang: University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
D. V. Dung: University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City
N. Gillett: Environment and Climate Change Canada
A. Haines: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
M. Mengel: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
V. Huber: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
A. Gasparrini: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 6, 492-500

Abstract: Abstract Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

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