Filling the evidentiary gap in climate litigation

Rupert F. Stuart-Smith (), Friederike E. L. Otto, Aisha I. Saad, Gaia Lisi, Petra Minnerop, Kristian Cedervall Lauta, Kristin Zwieten and Thom Wetzer
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Rupert F. Stuart-Smith: University of Oxford
Friederike E. L. Otto: University of Oxford
Aisha I. Saad: University of Oxford
Gaia Lisi: University of Oxford
Petra Minnerop: Durham University
Kristian Cedervall Lauta: University of Copenhagen
Kristin Zwieten: University of Oxford
Thom Wetzer: University of Oxford

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 8, 651-655

Abstract: Abstract Lawsuits concerning the impacts of climate change make causal claims about the effect of defendants’ greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on plaintiffs and have proliferated around the world. Plaintiffs have sought, inter alia, compensation for climate-related losses and to compel governments to reduce their GHG emissions. So far, most of these claims have been unsuccessful. Here we assess the scientific and legal bases for establishing causation and evaluate judicial treatment of scientific evidence in 73 lawsuits. We find that the evidence submitted and referenced in these cases lags considerably behind the state of the art in climate science, impeding causation claims. We conclude that greater appreciation and exploitation of existing methodologies in attribution science could address obstacles to causation and improve the prospects of litigation as a route to compensation for losses, regulatory action and emission reductions by defendants seeking to limit legal liability.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01086-7

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