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Historical warming consistently decreased size, dispersal and speciation rate of fish

Jorge Avaria-Llautureo (), Chris Venditti, Marcelo M. Rivadeneira, Oscar Inostroza-Michael, Reinaldo J. Rivera, Cristián E. Hernández and Cristian B. Canales-Aguirre
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Jorge Avaria-Llautureo: Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas, CEAZA
Chris Venditti: University of Reading
Marcelo M. Rivadeneira: Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas, CEAZA
Oscar Inostroza-Michael: Universidad de Concepción
Reinaldo J. Rivera: Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción (UCSC)
Cristián E. Hernández: Universidad de Concepción
Cristian B. Canales-Aguirre: Universidad de Los Lagos

Nature Climate Change, 2021, vol. 11, issue 9, 787-793

Abstract: Abstract There is ongoing debate as to whether fish body size will decrease with global warming and how these changes may impact dispersal ability and speciation rate. Theory predicts that, under warmer temperatures, fish grow to a smaller size, undergo a reduction in dispersal ability and increase speciation rates. However, evaluations of such predictions are hampered owing to the lack of empirical data spanning both wide temporal and geographical scales. Here, using phylogenetic methods, we show that smaller clupeiform fish (anchovies and herrings) occurred historically in warmer waters, moved the shortest distances at low speed and displayed the lowest speciation rates. Furthermore, fish moved faster and evolved rapidly under higher rates of temperature change but these historical rates are far lower than current warming rates. Our results predict a future where smaller clupeiform fish that have reduced ability to move will be more prevalent; this, in turn, may reduce future speciation.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01123-5

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Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-021-01123-5