Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation

Lynnette Dray, Andreas W. Schäfer (), Carla Grobler, Christoph Falter, Florian Allroggen, Marc E. J. Stettler and Steven R. H. Barrett ()
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Lynnette Dray: University College London
Andreas W. Schäfer: University College London
Carla Grobler: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Christoph Falter: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Florian Allroggen: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Marc E. J. Stettler: Imperial College London
Steven R. H. Barrett: Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 10, 956-962

Abstract: Abstract Aviation emissions are not on a trajectory consistent with Paris Climate Agreement goals. We evaluate the extent to which fuel pathways—synthetic fuels from biomass, synthetic fuels from green hydrogen and atmospheric CO2, and the direct use of green liquid hydrogen—could lead aviation towards net-zero climate impacts. Together with continued efficiency gains and contrail avoidance, but without offsets, such an energy transition could reduce lifecycle aviation CO2 emissions by 89–94% compared with year-2019 levels, despite a 2–3-fold growth in demand by 2050. The aviation sector could manage the associated cost increases, with ticket prices rising by no more than 15% compared with a no-intervention baseline leading to demand suppression of less than 14%. These pathways will require discounted investments on the order of US$0.5–2.1 trillion over a 30 yr period. However, our pathways reduce aviation CO2-equivalent emissions by only 46–69%; more action is required to mitigate non-CO2 impacts.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4

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