Warming reduces global agricultural production by decreasing cropping frequency and yields

Peng Zhu (), Jennifer Burney, Jinfeng Chang, Zhenong Jin, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Qinchuan Xin, Jialu Xu, Le Yu, David Makowski and Philippe Ciais
Additional contact information
Peng Zhu: CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers
Jennifer Burney: University of California, San Diego
Jinfeng Chang: Zhejiang University
Zhenong Jin: University of Minnesota
Nathaniel D. Mueller: Colorado State University
Qinchuan Xin: Sun Yat-Sen University
Jialu Xu: Beijing Normal University
Le Yu: Tsinghua University
David Makowski: Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, UMR 518 MIA
Philippe Ciais: CEA CNRS UVSQ Orme des Merisiers

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 11, 1016-1023

Abstract: Abstract Annual food caloric production is the product of caloric yield, cropping frequency (CF, number of production seasons per year) and cropland area. Existing studies have largely focused on crop yield, whereas how CF responds to climate change remains poorly understood. Here, we evaluate the global climate sensitivity of caloric yields and CF at national scale. We find a robust negative association between warming and both caloric yield and CF. By the 2050s, projected CF increases in cold regions are offset by larger decreases in warm regions, resulting in a net global CF reduction (−4.2 ± 2.5% in high emission scenario), suggesting that climate-driven decline in CF will exacerbate crop production loss and not provide climate adaptation alone. Although irrigation is effective in offsetting the projected production loss, irrigation areas have to be expanded by >5% in warm regions to fully offset climate-induced production losses by the 2050s.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01492-5

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