Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture

Yue Qin (), Chaopeng Hong, Hongyan Zhao, Stefan Siebert, John T. Abatzoglou, Laurie S. Huning, Lindsey L. Sloat, Sohyun Park, Shiyu Li, Darla Munroe, Tong Zhu, Steven J. Davis and Nathaniel D. Mueller ()
Additional contact information
Yue Qin: Peking University
Chaopeng Hong: Tsinghua University
Hongyan Zhao: Beijing Normal University
Stefan Siebert: University of Göttingen
John T. Abatzoglou: University of California
Laurie S. Huning: California State University
Lindsey L. Sloat: World Resources Institute
Sohyun Park: George Mason University
Shiyu Li: Peking University
Tong Zhu: Peking University
Steven J. Davis: University of California
Nathaniel D. Mueller: Colorado State University

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 11, 1007-1015

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on snowmelt. Here, we integrate subannual irrigation and snowmelt dynamics and a model of international trade to assess the global redistribution of snowmelt dependencies and risks under climate change. We estimate that 16% of snowmelt used for irrigation is for agricultural products traded globally, of which over 70% is from five countries. Globally, we observe a prodigious snowmelt dependence and risk diffusion, with particularly evident importing of products at risk in western Europe. In Germany and the UK, local fraction of surface-water-irrigated agriculture supply exposed to snowmelt risks could increase from negligible to 16% and 10%, respectively, under a 2 °C warming. Our results reveal the trade-exposure of agricultural supplies, highlighting regions and crops whose consumption may be vulnerable to changing snowmelt even if their domestic production is not.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01509-z

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