Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming

Gokul Iyer, Yang Ou, James Edmonds, Allen A. Fawcett, Nathan Hultman, James McFarland, Jay Fuhrman, Stephanie Waldhoff and Haewon McJeon ()
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Gokul Iyer: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Yang Ou: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
James Edmonds: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Allen A. Fawcett: US Environmental Protection Agency
Nathan Hultman: University of Maryland
James McFarland: US Environmental Protection Agency
Jay Fuhrman: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Stephanie Waldhoff: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland
Haewon McJeon: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and University of Maryland

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 12, 1129-1135

Abstract: Abstract The new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of the Twenty-Sixth Conference of Parties represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges. Yet, limiting global warming below 1.5 °C this century will require countries to ratchet ambition for 2030 and beyond. Here, we explore a suite of emissions pathways to show that ratcheting near-term ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting peak temperature changes. Delaying ratcheting ambition to beyond 2030 could still deliver end-of-century temperature change of less than 1.5 °C but would result in higher temperature overshoot over many decades with the potential for adverse consequences. Ratcheting near-term ambition would also deliver benefits from enhanced non-CO2 mitigation and facilitate faster transitions to net-zero emissions systems in major economies.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01508-0

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