Asymmetric emergence of low-to-no snow in the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera

Alan M. Rhoades (), Benjamin J. Hatchett, Mark D. Risser, William D. Collins, Nicolas E. Bambach, Laurie S. Huning, Rachel McCrary, Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn, Paul A. Ullrich, Michael F. Wehner, Colin M. Zarzycki and Andrew D. Jones
Additional contact information
Alan M. Rhoades: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Benjamin J. Hatchett: Desert Research Institute
Mark D. Risser: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
William D. Collins: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Nicolas E. Bambach: University of California
Laurie S. Huning: California State University
Rachel McCrary: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Erica R. Siirila-Woodburn: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Paul A. Ullrich: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Michael F. Wehner: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Colin M. Zarzycki: Penn State University
Andrew D. Jones: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 12, 1151-1159

Abstract: Abstract Societies and ecosystems within and downstream of mountains rely on seasonal snowmelt to satisfy their water demands. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced mountain snowpacks worldwide, altering snowmelt magnitude and timing. Here the global warming level leading to widespread and persistent mountain snowpack decline, termed low-to-no snow, is estimated for the world’s most latitudinally contiguous mountain range, the American Cordillera. We show that a combination of dynamical, thermodynamical and hypsometric factors results in an asymmetric emergence of low-to-no-snow conditions within the midlatitudes of the American Cordillera. Low-to-no-snow emergence occurs approximately 20 years earlier in the southern hemisphere, at a third of the local warming level, and coincides with runoff efficiency declines (8% average) in both dry and wet years. The prevention of a low-to-no-snow future in either hemisphere requires the level of global warming to be held to, at most, +2.5 °C.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01518-y

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