Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate

Shulei Zhang (), Liming Zhou, Lu Zhang, Yuting Yang, Zhongwang Wei, Sha Zhou, Dawen Yang, Xiaofan Yang, Xiuchen Wu, Yongqiang Zhang, Xiaoyan Li and Yongjiu Dai ()
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Shulei Zhang: Sun Yat-sen University
Liming Zhou: University at Albany, State University of New York
Lu Zhang: Wuhan University
Yuting Yang: Tsinghua University
Zhongwang Wei: Sun Yat-sen University
Sha Zhou: Beijing Normal University
Dawen Yang: Tsinghua University
Xiaofan Yang: Beijing Normal University
Xiuchen Wu: Beijing Normal University
Yongqiang Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Xiaoyan Li: Beijing Normal University
Yongjiu Dai: Sun Yat-sen University

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 12, 1160-1167

Abstract: Abstract An intensified hydrological cycle with global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, whether and to what extent the enhanced extreme precipitation translates into changes in river floods remains controversial. Here we demonstrate that previously reported unapparent or even negative responses of river flood discharge (defined as annual maximum discharge) to extreme precipitation increases are largely caused by mixing the signals of floods with different generating mechanisms. Stratifying by flood type, we show a positive response of rainstorm-induced floods to extreme precipitation increases. However, this response is almost entirely offset by concurrent decreases in snow-related floods, leading to an overall unapparent change in total global floods in both historical observations and future climate projections. Our findings highlight an increasing rainstorm-induced flood risk under warming and the importance of distinguishing flood-generating mechanisms in assessing flood changes and associated social-economic and environmental risks.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01539-7

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