Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing

Jong-Seong Kug (), Ji-Hoon Oh, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, Seung-Ki Min, Seok-Woo Son, Jonghun Kam, Yoo-Geun Ham and Jongsoo Shin
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Jong-Seong Kug: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Ji-Hoon Oh: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Soon-Il An: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Sang-Wook Yeh: Hanyang University, ERICA
Seung-Ki Min: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Seok-Woo Son: Seoul National University
Jonghun Kam: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Yoo-Geun Ham: Chonnam National University
Jongsoo Shin: Yonsei University

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 1, 47-53

Abstract: Abstract With the unprecedented rate of global warming in recent decades, whether or not anthropogenic climate change is irreversible is an important question. Based on idealized CO2 ramp-up until 1,468 ppm and symmetric ramp-down model experiments, here we show that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) does not respond linearly to CO2 forcing, but exhibits strong hysteresis behaviour. While the location of the ITCZ changes minimally during the ramp-up period, it moves sharply south as soon as CO2 begins to decrease, and its centre eventually resides in the Southern Hemisphere during the ramp-down period. Such ITCZ hysteresis is associated with delays in global energy exchanges between the tropics and extratropics. The delayed energy exchanges are explained by two distinct hysteresis behaviours of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and slower warming/cooling in the Southern Ocean. We also suggest that the ITCZ hysteresis can lead to hysteresis in regional hydrological cycles.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01211-6

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