Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Ajay Gambhir (), Mel George, Haewon McJeon, Nigel W. Arnell, Daniel Bernie, Shivika Mittal, Alexandre C. Köberle, Jason Lowe, Joeri Rogelj and Seth Monteith
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Ajay Gambhir: Imperial College London
Mel George: University of Maryland
Haewon McJeon: University of Maryland
Nigel W. Arnell: University of Reading
Daniel Bernie: Met Office Hadley Centre
Shivika Mittal: Imperial College London
Alexandre C. Köberle: Imperial College London
Jason Lowe: Met Office Hadley Centre
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London
Seth Monteith: ClimateWorks Foundation

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 1, 88-96

Abstract: Abstract Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Here, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x

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