Inequitable patterns of US flood risk in the Anthropocene

Oliver E. J. Wing (), William Lehman, Paul D. Bates, Christopher C. Sampson, Niall Quinn, Andrew M. Smith, Jeffrey C. Neal, Jeremy R. Porter and Carolyn Kousky
Additional contact information
Oliver E. J. Wing: Fathom
William Lehman: US Army Corps of Engineers
Paul D. Bates: Fathom
Christopher C. Sampson: Fathom
Niall Quinn: Fathom
Andrew M. Smith: Fathom
Jeffrey C. Neal: Fathom
Jeremy R. Porter: First Street Foundation
Carolyn Kousky: University of Pennsylvania

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 2, 156-162

Abstract: Abstract Current flood risk mapping, relying on historical observations, fails to account for increasing threat under climate change. Incorporating recent developments in inundation modelling, here we show a 26.4% (24.1–29.1%) increase in US flood risk by 2050 due to climate change alone under RCP4.5. Our national depiction of comprehensive and high-resolution flood risk estimates in the United States indicates current average annual losses of US$32.1 billion (US$30.5–33.8 billion) in 2020’s climate, which are borne disproportionately by poorer communities with a proportionally larger White population. The future increase in risk will disproportionately impact Black communities, while remaining concentrated on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Furthermore, projected population change (SSP2) could cause flood risk increases that outweigh the impact of climate change fourfold. These results make clear the need for adaptation to flood and emergent climate risks in the United States, with mitigation required to prevent the acceleration of these risks.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01265-6

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