Threat by marine heatwaves to adaptive large marine ecosystems in an eddy-resolving model

Xiuwen Guo, Yang Gao (), Shaoqing Zhang (), Lixin Wu, Ping Chang, Wenju Cai, Jakob Zscheischler, L. Ruby Leung, Justin Small, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Luanne Thompson and Huiwang Gao
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Xiuwen Guo: Ocean University of China
Yang Gao: Ocean University of China
Shaoqing Zhang: Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology
Lixin Wu: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
Ping Chang: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
Wenju Cai: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Jakob Zscheischler: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ
L. Ruby Leung: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Justin Small: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
Gokhan Danabasoglu: International Laboratory for High‐Resolution Earth System Prediction (iHESP)
Luanne Thompson: University of Washington
Huiwang Gao: Ocean University of China

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 2, 179-186

Abstract: Abstract Marine heatwaves (MHWs), episodic periods of abnormally high sea surface temperature, severely affect marine ecosystems. Large marine ecosystems (LMEs) cover ~22% of the global ocean but account for 95% of global fisheries catches. Yet how climate change affects MHWs over LMEs remains unknown because such LMEs are confined to the coast where low-resolution climate models are known to have biases. Here, using a high-resolution Earth system model and applying a ‘future threshold’ that considers MHWs as anomalous warming above the long-term mean warming of sea surface temperatures, we find that future intensity and annual days of MHWs over the majority of the LMEs remain higher than in the present-day climate. Better resolution of ocean mesoscale eddies enables simulation of more realistic MHWs than low-resolution models. These increases in MHWs under global warming pose a serious threat to LMEs, even if resident organisms could adapt fully to the long-term mean warming.

Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01266-5

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