African heritage sites threatened as sea-level rise accelerates

Michalis I. Vousdoukas (), Joanne Clarke, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Lena Reimann, Nadia Khalaf, Trang Minh Duong, Birgitt Ouweneel, Salma Sabour, Carley E. Iles, Christopher H. Trisos, Luc Feyen, Lorenzo Mentaschi and Nicholas P. Simpson ()
Additional contact information
Michalis I. Vousdoukas: European Commission
Joanne Clarke: University of East Anglia
Roshanka Ranasinghe: IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Lena Reimann: Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Nadia Khalaf: University of Exeter
Trang Minh Duong: IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Birgitt Ouweneel: University of Cape Town
Salma Sabour: University of Southampton
Carley E. Iles: Center for International Climate Research
Christopher H. Trisos: University of Cape Town
Luc Feyen: European Commission
Lorenzo Mentaschi: University of Bologna
Nicholas P. Simpson: University of Cape Town

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 3, 256-262

Abstract: Abstract The African coast contains heritage sites of ‘Outstanding Universal Value’ that face increasing risk from anthropogenic climate change. Here, we generated a database of 213 natural and 71 cultural African heritage sites to assess exposure to coastal flooding and erosion under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Currently, 56 sites (20%) are at risk from a 1-in-100-year coastal extreme event, including the iconic ruins of Tipasa (Algeria) and the North Sinai Archaeological Sites Zone (Egypt). By 2050, the number of exposed sites is projected to more than triple, reaching almost 200 sites under high emissions. Emissions mitigation from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 reduces the number of very highly exposed sites by 25%. These findings highlight the urgent need for increased climate change adaptation for heritage sites in Africa, including governance and management approaches, site-specific vulnerability assessments, exposure monitoring, and protection strategies.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01280-1

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