Different climate response persistence causes warming trend unevenness at continental scales

Qingxiang Li (), Bosi Sheng, Jiaying Huang, Chao Li, Zhaoyang Song, Liya Chao, Wenbin Sun, Yang Yang, Boyang Jiao, Ziyou Guo, Longshi Liao, Xuqian Li, Chenglong Sun, Wen Li, Boyin Huang, Wenjie Dong and Phil Jones
Additional contact information
Qingxiang Li: Sun Yat-Sen University
Bosi Sheng: Sun Yat-Sen University
Jiaying Huang: Sun Yat-Sen University
Chao Li: East China Normal University
Zhaoyang Song: Sun Yat-Sen University
Liya Chao: Sun Yat-Sen University
Wenbin Sun: Sun Yat-Sen University
Yang Yang: Sun Yat-Sen University
Boyang Jiao: Sun Yat-Sen University
Ziyou Guo: Sun Yat-Sen University
Longshi Liao: Sun Yat-Sen University
Xuqian Li: Sun Yat-Sen University
Chenglong Sun: Sun Yat-Sen University
Wen Li: Sun Yat-Sen University
Boyin Huang: National Centers for Environmental Information, NOAA
Wenjie Dong: Sun Yat-Sen University
Phil Jones: University of East Anglia

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 4, 343-349

Abstract: Abstract Global warming exhibits distinct differences at continental scales, yet whether models capture these differences is unclear. Here, we show that Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models underestimate warming unevenness for China and the United States, possibly leading to a biased estimation of anthropogenic influence on warming over the two regions. Observational records suggest that the surface air temperature warming trends over China are 1.53 ± 0.10 and 1.38 ± 0.12 times those of the United States for 1900–2017 and 1951–2017, respectively. We find that surface air temperature changes over China seem more sensitive to external forcing owing to stronger long-range persistence, leading to substantially different warming trends between China and the United States. Our study provides insight into the drivers of contemporary climate warming that could help in devising climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for the future.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01313-9

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