Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming

M. T. Dvorak (), K. C. Armour, D. M. W. Frierson, C. Proistosescu, M. B. Baker and C. J. Smith
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M. T. Dvorak: University of Washington
K. C. Armour: University of Washington
D. M. W. Frierson: University of Washington
C. Proistosescu: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
M. B. Baker: University of Washington
C. J. Smith: University of Leeds

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 6, 547-552

Abstract: Abstract Following abrupt cessation of anthropogenic emissions, decreases in short-lived aerosols would lead to a warming peak within a decade, followed by slow cooling as GHG concentrations decline. This implies a geophysical commitment to temporarily crossing warming levels before reaching them. Here we use an emissions-based climate model (FaIR) to estimate temperature change following cessation of emissions in 2021 and in every year thereafter until 2080 following eight Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Assuming a medium-emissions trajectory (SSP2–4.5), we find that we are already committed to peak warming greater than 1.5 °C with 42% probability, increasing to 66% by 2029 (340 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Probability of peak warming greater than 2.0 °C is currently 2%, increasing to 66% by 2057 (1,550 GtCO2 relative to 2021). Because climate will cool from peak warming as GHG concentrations decline, committed warming of 1.5 °C in 2100 will not occur with at least 66% probability until 2055.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y

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