Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Savin S. Chand (), Kevin J. E. Walsh, Suzana J. Camargo, James P. Kossin, Kevin J. Tory, Michael F. Wehner, Johnny C. L. Chan, Philip J. Klotzbach, Andrew J. Dowdy, Samuel S. Bell, Hamish A. Ramsay and Hiroyuki Murakami
Additional contact information
Savin S. Chand: Federation University
Kevin J. E. Walsh: University of Melbourne
Suzana J. Camargo: Columbia University
James P. Kossin: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information/Climate Science and Services Division
Kevin J. Tory: Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology
Michael F. Wehner: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Johnny C. L. Chan: City University of Hong Kong
Philip J. Klotzbach: Colorado State University
Andrew J. Dowdy: Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology
Samuel S. Bell: Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology
Hamish A. Ramsay: CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere
Hiroyuki Murakami: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 7, 655-661

Abstract: Abstract Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01388-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().