Widespread shift from ecosystem energy to water limitation with climate change

Jasper M. C. Denissen (), Adriaan J. Teuling, Andy J. Pitman, Sujan Koirala, Mirco Migliavacca, Wantong Li, Markus Reichstein, Alexander J. Winkler, Chunhui Zhan and Rene Orth
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Jasper M. C. Denissen: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Adriaan J. Teuling: Wageningen University
Andy J. Pitman: University of New South Wales
Sujan Koirala: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Mirco Migliavacca: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Wantong Li: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Markus Reichstein: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Alexander J. Winkler: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Chunhui Zhan: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
Rene Orth: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 7, 677-684

Abstract: Abstract Terrestrial ecosystems are essential for food and water security and CO2 uptake. Ecosystem function is dependent on the availability of soil moisture, yet it is unclear how climate change will alter soil moisture limitation on vegetation. Here we use an ecosystem index that distinguishes energy and water limitations in Earth system model simulations to show a widespread regime shift from energy to water limitation between 1980 and 2100. This shift is found in both space and time. While this is mainly related to a reduction in energy-limited regions associated with increasing incoming shortwave radiation, the largest shift towards water limitation is found in regions where incoming shortwave radiation increases are accompanied by soil moisture decreases. We therefore demonstrate a widespread regime shift in ecosystem function that is stronger than implied by individual trends in incoming shortwave radiation, soil moisture and terrestrial evaporation, with important implications for future ecosystem services.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01403-8

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