Definitions and implications of climate-neutral aviation

Nicoletta Brazzola (), Anthony Patt and Jan Wohland
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Nicoletta Brazzola: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Anthony Patt: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
Jan Wohland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 8, 761-767

Abstract: Abstract To meet ambitious climate targets, the aviation sector needs to neutralize CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 climatic effects. Despite being responsible for approximately two-thirds of aviation’s impacts on the climate, most of aviation non-CO2 species are currently excluded from climate mitigation efforts. Here we identify three plausible definitions of climate-neutral aviation that include non-CO2 forcing and assess their implications considering future demand uncertainty, technological innovation and CO2 removal. We demonstrate that simply neutralizing aviation’s CO2 emissions, if nothing is done to reduce non-CO2 forcing, causes up to 0.4 °C additional warming, thus compromising the 1.5 °C target. We further show that substantial rates of CO2 removal are needed to achieve climate-neutral aviation in scenarios with little mitigation, yet cleaner-flying technologies can drastically reduce them. Our work provides policymakers with consistent definitions of climate-neutral aviation and highlights the beneficial side effects of moving to aircraft types and fuels with lower indirect climate effects.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01404-7

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