A climate risk index for marine life

Daniel G. Boyce (), Derek P. Tittensor, Cristina Garilao, Stephanie Henson, Kristin Kaschner, Kathleen Kesner-Reyes, Alex Pigot, Rodolfo B. Reyes, Gabriel Reygondeau, Kathryn E. Schleit, Nancy L. Shackell, Patricia Sorongon-Yap and Boris Worm
Additional contact information
Daniel G. Boyce: Dalhousie University
Derek P. Tittensor: Dalhousie University
Cristina Garilao: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research
Stephanie Henson: National Oceanography Centre
Kristin Kaschner: University of Freiburg
Kathleen Kesner-Reyes: Quantitative Aquatics
Alex Pigot: University College London
Rodolfo B. Reyes: Quantitative Aquatics
Gabriel Reygondeau: University of British Columbia
Kathryn E. Schleit: Oceans North
Nancy L. Shackell: Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Patricia Sorongon-Yap: Quantitative Aquatics
Boris Worm: Dalhousie University

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 9, 854-862

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is impacting virtually all marine life. Adaptation strategies will require a robust understanding of the risks to species and ecosystems and how those propagate to human societies. We develop a unified and spatially explicit index to comprehensively evaluate the climate risks to marine life. Under high emissions (SSP5-8.5), almost 90% of ~25,000 species are at high or critical risk, with species at risk across 85% of their native distributions. One tenth of the ocean contains ecosystems where the aggregated climate risk, endemism and extinction threat of their constituent species are high. Climate change poses the greatest risk for exploited species in low-income countries with a high dependence on fisheries. Mitigating emissions (SSP1-2.6) reduces the risk for virtually all species (98.2%), enhances ecosystem stability and disproportionately benefits food-insecure populations in low-income countries. Our climate risk assessment can help prioritize vulnerable species and ecosystems for climate-adapted marine conservation and fisheries management efforts.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01437-y

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