Suppressed Atlantic Niño/Niña variability under greenhouse warming

Yun Yang, Lixin Wu (), Wenju Cai (), Fan Jia, Benjamin Ng, Guojian Wang and Tao Geng
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Yun Yang: Beijing Normal University
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China
Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China
Fan Jia: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Benjamin Ng: CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Guojian Wang: Ocean University of China
Tao Geng: Ocean University of China

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 9, 814-821

Abstract: Abstract The Atlantic Niño/Niña is a dominant mode of interannual variability peaking in boreal summer with substantial climate impacts. How the Atlantic Niño/Niña sea surface temperature (SST) variability may change under greenhouse warming remains unclear. Here we find a robust suppression in future Atlantic Niño/Niña variability in models that simulate a reasonable mean climatology of the equatorial Atlantic. Under greenhouse warming, the equatorial Atlantic atmosphere becomes more stable, reducing sensitivity of the equatorial zonal winds to the zonal SST gradient; further, weakened trade winds lead to a deepened thermocline in the east, reducing SST sensitivity to thermocline anomalies. These changes feed into Bjerknes feedback to cause suppression in Atlantic Niño/Niña SST variability. These findings are in stark contrast to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean where El Niño/La Niña SST variability and strong Indian Ocean Dipole variability are projected to increase.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01444-z

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