Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing

Soong-Ki Kim, Jongsoo Shin, Soon-Il An (), Hyo-Jeong Kim, Nari Im, Shang-Ping Xie, Jong-Seong Kug and Sang-Wook Yeh
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Soong-Ki Kim: Yonsei University
Jongsoo Shin: Yonsei University
Soon-Il An: Yonsei University
Hyo-Jeong Kim: Yonsei University
Nari Im: Yonsei University
Shang-Ping Xie: University of California San Diego
Jong-Seong Kug: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Sang-Wook Yeh: Hanyang University, ERICA

Nature Climate Change, 2022, vol. 12, issue 9, 834-840

Abstract: Abstract Some climate variables do not show the same response to declining atmospheric CO2 concentrations as before the preceding increase. A comprehensive understanding of this hysteresis effect and its regional patterns is, however, lacking. Here we use an Earth system model with an idealized CO2 removal scenario to show that surface temperature and precipitation exhibit globally widespread irreversible changes over a timespan of centuries. To explore the climate hysteresis and reversibility on a regional scale, we develop a quantification method that visualizes their spatial patterns. Our experiments project that 89% and 58% of the global area experiences irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation, respectively. Strong irreversible response of surface temperature is found in the Southern Ocean, Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean and of precipitation in the tropical Pacific, global monsoon regions and the Himalayas. These global hotspots of irreversible changes can indicate elevated risks of negative impacts on developing countries.

Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01452-z

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