The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica

Mathieu Casado (), Raphaël Hébert, Davide Faranda and Amaelle Landais
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Mathieu Casado: Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL
Raphaël Hébert: Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Davide Faranda: Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL
Amaelle Landais: Université Paris-Saclay, IPSL

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 10, 1082-1088

Abstract: Abstract Global warming driven by human activities is expected to be accentuated in polar regions compared with the global average, an effect called polar amplification. Yet, for Antarctica, the amplitude of warming is still poorly constrained due to short weather observations and the large decadal climate variability. Using a compilation of 78 ice core records, we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of temperatures over the past 1,000 years for seven regions of Antarctica and direct evidence of Antarctic polar amplification at regional and continental scales. We also show that the amplitude of both natural and forced variability is not captured by the CMIP5 and six model ensemble members, which could be explained in part by the Southern Annular Mode. This shows that failing to consider the feedback loops causing polar amplification could lead to an underestimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic warming and its consequences in Antarctica.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01791-5

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