Status of global coastal adaptation

Alexandre K. Magnan (), Robert Bell, Virginie K. E. Duvat, James D. Ford, Matthias Garschagen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Carmen Lacambra, Inigo J. Losada, Katharine J. Mach, Mélinda Noblet, Devanathan Parthasaranthy, Marcello Sano, Katharine Vincent, Ariadna Anisimov, Susan Hanson, Alexandra Malmström, Robert J. Nicholls and Gundula Winter
Additional contact information
Alexandre K. Magnan: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Sciences Po)
Robert Bell: University of Waikato
Virginie K. E. Duvat: CNRS and La Rochelle University
James D. Ford: University of Leeds
Matthias Garschagen: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU)
Marjolijn Haasnoot: Deltares
Carmen Lacambra: Grupo Laera
Inigo J. Losada: IHCantabria, Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria
Katharine J. Mach: University of Miami
Mélinda Noblet: University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yveline
Devanathan Parthasaranthy: Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
Marcello Sano: Griffith University
Katharine Vincent: Kulima Integrated Development Solutions
Ariadna Anisimov: Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Sciences Po)
Susan Hanson: University of East Anglia
Alexandra Malmström: University of Helsinki
Robert J. Nicholls: University of East Anglia
Gundula Winter: Deltares

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 11, 1213-1221

Abstract: Abstract The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x

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