Net-zero approaches must consider Earth system impacts to achieve climate goals

Kirsten Zickfeld (), Alexander J. MacIsaac, Josep G. Canadell, Sabine Fuss, Robert B. Jackson, Chris D. Jones, Annalea Lohila, H. Damon Matthews, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj and Sönke Zaehle
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Kirsten Zickfeld: Simon Fraser University
Alexander J. MacIsaac: Simon Fraser University
Josep G. Canadell: CSIRO Environment
Sabine Fuss: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Robert B. Jackson: Stanford University
Chris D. Jones: Met Office Hadley Centre
Annalea Lohila: Finnish Meteorological Institute
H. Damon Matthews: Concordia University
Glen P. Peters: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London
Sönke Zaehle: Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 12, 1298-1305

Abstract: Abstract Commitments to net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets now cover 88% of countries’ emissions. Underlying the accounting behind net-zero frameworks is the assumption that emissions can be balanced with removals such that their net climate effect is zero. However, when considering the full climate impacts of CO2 emissions and removals, there are reasons to expect that the two are not equivalent in terms of their climate outcomes. We identify potential contributors to non-equivalence, including impermanence, biogeophysical and non-CO2 GHG effects, and argue that these non-equivalencies need to be accounted for to achieve climate goals. Given key uncertainties about the full climate impact of CO2 removal, it is prudent to prioritize emission reductions over removals.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01862-7

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