Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

Stephen L. Bi (), Nico Bauer and Jessica Jewell
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Stephen L. Bi: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Nico Bauer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Jessica Jewell: Chalmers University of Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 2, 130-139

Abstract: Abstract The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8

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