Carbon emissions and economic impacts of an EU embargo on Russian fossil fuels

Li-Jing Liu, Hong-Dian Jiang, Qiao-Mei Liang, Felix Creutzig (), Hua Liao, Yun-Fei Yao, Xiang-Yan Qian, Zhong-Yuan Ren, Jing Qing, Qi-Ran Cai, Ottmar Edenhofer and Yi-Ming Wei
Additional contact information
Hong-Dian Jiang: Beijing Institute of Technology
Felix Creutzig: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
Hua Liao: Beijing Institute of Technology
Yun-Fei Yao: Sinopec
Xiang-Yan Qian: Beijing Institute of Technology
Zhong-Yuan Ren: CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute
Jing Qing: Beijing Institute of Technology
Qi-Ran Cai: Beijing Institute of Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 3, 290-296

Abstract: Abstract The Russia–Ukraine conflict lays bare the dependence of the European Union (EU) on fossil fuel imports from Russia. Here, we use a global computable general equilibrium model, C3IAM/GEEPA, to estimate CO2 emission and gross domestic product (GDP) impact of embargoing fossil fuels from Russia. We find that embargoes induce more than 10% reduction of CO2 emissions in the EU and over 5% increases of emissions in Russia, while both regions experience GDP losses (around 2% (US $486 billion) for the EU and about 5% (US $149 billion) for Russia, ignoring the relative impact of other sanctions). Reacting to increasing energy prices with demand-side response inside the EU would increase CO2 emission savings, and ease GDP losses; however, the world would continue to suffer economic damage (US $655 billion).

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01606-7

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