Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations

Ewa Merz (), Erik Saberski, Luis J. Gilarranz, Peter D. F. Isles, George Sugihara, Christine Berger and Francesco Pomati
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Ewa Merz: Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Erik Saberski: University of California San Diego
Luis J. Gilarranz: Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology
Peter D. F. Isles: Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation
George Sugihara: University of California San Diego
Christine Berger: Qualitaetsueberwachung
Francesco Pomati: Eawag: Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 4, 389-396

Abstract: Abstract Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01615-6

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