A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges

Dirk-Jan van de Ven (), Shivika Mittal, Ajay Gambhir, Robin D. Lamboll, Haris Doukas, Sara Giarola, Adam Hawkes, Konstantinos Koasidis, Alexandre C. Köberle, Haewon McJeon, Sigit Perdana, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Ida Sognnaes, Marc Vielle and Alexandros Nikas
Additional contact information
Dirk-Jan van de Ven: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)
Shivika Mittal: Imperial College London
Ajay Gambhir: Imperial College London
Robin D. Lamboll: Imperial College London
Haris Doukas: National Technical University of Athens
Sara Giarola: Imperial College London
Adam Hawkes: Imperial College London
Konstantinos Koasidis: National Technical University of Athens
Alexandre C. Köberle: Imperial College London
Haewon McJeon: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Sigit Perdana: École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Glen P. Peters: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London
Ida Sognnaes: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Alexandros Nikas: National Technical University of Athens

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 6, 570-578

Abstract: Abstract The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070 but it is not clear how this would impact future warming. Here, we use four diverse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term on the basis of national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications. We also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero. While near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2 °C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a future well below 2 °C, across all four IAMs. However, while IAM heterogeneity translates to diverse decarbonization pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation and the rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.

Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01661-0

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