Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users

Robert E. Kopp (), Michael Oppenheimer, Jessica L. O’Reilly, Sybren S. Drijfhout, Tamsin L. Edwards, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Gregory G. Garner, Nicholas R. Golledge, Tim H. J. Hermans, Helene T. Hewitt, Benjamin P. Horton, Gerhard Krinner, Dirk Notz, Sophie Nowicki, Matthew D. Palmer, Aimée B. A. Slangen and Cunde Xiao
Additional contact information
Robert E. Kopp: Rutgers University
Michael Oppenheimer: Princeton University
Jessica L. O’Reilly: Indiana University Bloomington
Sybren S. Drijfhout: NIOZ Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Tamsin L. Edwards: King’s College London
Baylor Fox-Kemper: Brown University
Gregory G. Garner: Rutgers University
Nicholas R. Golledge: Victoria University of Wellington
Tim H. J. Hermans: Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Helene T. Hewitt: Met Office
Benjamin P. Horton: Nanyang Technological University
Gerhard Krinner: Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement
Dirk Notz: Universität Hamburg
Sophie Nowicki: University at Buffalo
Matthew D. Palmer: Met Office
Aimée B. A. Slangen: Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Cunde Xiao: Beijing Normal University

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 7, 648-660

Abstract: Abstract Future sea-level change is characterized by both quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainties. Effective communication of both types of uncertainty is a key challenge in translating sea-level science to inform long-term coastal planning. Scientific assessments play a key role in the translation process and have taken diverse approaches to communicating sea-level projection uncertainty. Here we review how past IPCC and regional assessments have presented sea-level projection uncertainty, how IPCC presentations have been interpreted by regional assessments and how regional assessments and policy guidance simplify projections for practical use. This information influenced the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report presentation of quantifiable and unquantifiable uncertainty, with the goal of preserving both elements as projections are adapted for regional application.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01691-8

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