Asymmetric influence of forest cover gain and loss on land surface temperature

Yongxian Su, Chaoqun Zhang, Philippe Ciais, Zhenzhong Zeng, Alessandro Cescatti, Jiali Shang, Jing Ming Chen, Jane Liu, Ying-Ping Wang, Wenping Yuan, Shushi Peng, Xuhui Lee, Zaichun Zhu, Lei Fan, Xiaoping Liu, Liyang Liu, Raffaele Lafortezza, Yan Li, Jiashun Ren, Xueqin Yang and Xiuzhi Chen ()
Additional contact information
Yongxian Su: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Chaoqun Zhang: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Philippe Ciais: Université Paris-Saclay
Zhenzhong Zeng: Southern University of Science and Technology
Alessandro Cescatti: Joint Research Centre
Jiali Shang: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Jing Ming Chen: University of Toronto
Jane Liu: University of Toronto
Ying-Ping Wang: CSIRO Environment
Wenping Yuan: Sun Yat-sen University
Shushi Peng: Peking University
Xuhui Lee: Yale University
Zaichun Zhu: Peking University
Lei Fan: Southwest University
Xiaoping Liu: Sun Yat-sen University
Liyang Liu: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Raffaele Lafortezza: University of Bari “Aldo Moro”
Yan Li: Beijing Normal University
Jiashun Ren: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Xueqin Yang: Guangdong Academy of Sciences
Xiuzhi Chen: Sun Yat-sen University

Nature Climate Change, 2023, vol. 13, issue 8, 823-831

Abstract: Abstract The direct biophysical effects of fine-scale tree cover changes on temperature are not well understood. Here, we show how land surface temperature responds to subgrid gross tree cover changes. We find that in many forests, the biophysical cooling induced by enhanced evapotranspiration due to tree cover gain is greater in magnitude than the warming from tree cover loss. Therefore, the goal of no biophysical warming effects from tree cover changes could be achieved by regaining a fraction of previously lost tree cover areas. This percentage differs between different forest biomes, ranging from 75% in tropical to 83% in temperate forests. Neglecting this asymmetric temperature effect of fine-scale tree cover change ignores the fact that biophysical feedbacks continue to cause surface temperature changes even under net-zero tree cover changes. Thus, it is necessary to account for gross, rather than net, tree cover changes when quantifying the biophysical effects of forests.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01757-7

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