Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species

Leonardo Cruz (), Maria Pennino and Priscila Lopes
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Leonardo Cruz: Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte
Maria Pennino: Instituto Español de Oceanografía
Priscila Lopes: Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 10, 1093-1100

Abstract: Abstract The redistribution of fish stocks induced by climate change is expected to have global implications for fisheries, particularly the poleward shifts of species. However, the responses of different fishing gears and fleet of countries and their potential attempts to spatially redistribute catches remain unknown. Here, by developing environmental niche models for industrial fisheries of 82 countries and 13 fishing gears, we demonstrate that without management, global fleets are expected to shift poleward by the end of the century. This is driven by polar fishing gears moving to higher Arctic areas and tropical fishing gears expanding both within the tropics and poleward. Most nations, particularly tropical ones, may struggle to track these shifts, as they largely rely on coastal and nearshore fishing gears, such as trawlers. Our findings highlight the need to consider future shifts of fisheries in their management, to ensure the long-term sustainability and accessibility of fish stocks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02127-7

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