Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change

Jiangdong Liu, Jinlei Qi, Peng Yin, Wei Liu, Cheng He, Ya Gao, Lu Zhou, Yixiang Zhu, Haidong Kan, Renjie Chen () and Maigeng Zhou ()
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Jiangdong Liu: Fudan University
Jinlei Qi: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Peng Yin: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Wei Liu: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Cheng He: Fudan University
Ya Gao: Fudan University
Lu Zhou: Fudan University
Yixiang Zhu: Fudan University
Haidong Kan: Fudan University
Renjie Chen: Fudan University
Maigeng Zhou: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 11, 1201-1209

Abstract: Abstract Global warming shifts daytime-only heatwaves to nighttime-only and day–night compound heatwaves. However, evidence on the cause-specific burdens of these heatwaves in a changing climate and ageing population is limited. Here, by analysing 1,088,742 non-accidental deaths from 272 Chinese cities, we found that compound heatwaves posed significantly higher cardiopulmonary mortality risks and burdens than daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, particularly for ischaemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and regions with high summer temperature variation. Projections suggested substantial increases in compound heatwave-related mortality (4.0–7.6-fold) by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, outpacing nighttime-only heatwaves (0.7–1.9-fold) and contrasting with decreasing daytime heatwave-related mortality (0.3–0.8-fold). A strict emission control scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) may reverse most heatwave-related mortality increases. The confluence of global warming and ageing amplifies heatwave-related burdens, outstripping the sum of their individual impacts. Our findings underscore the importance of addressing compound heatwaves amid global warming.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5

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