Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe (), Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer and Matthias Mengel
Additional contact information
Chantelle Burton: Met Office Hadley Centre
Seppe Lampe: Department of Water and Climate
Douglas I. Kelley: UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Wim Thiery: Department of Water and Climate
Stijn Hantson: Universidad del Rosario
Nikos Christidis: Met Office Hadley Centre
Lukas Gudmundsson: ETH Zurich
Matthew Forrest: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Eleanor Burke: Met Office Hadley Centre
Jinfeng Chang: Zhejiang University
Huilin Huang: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Akihiko Ito: National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences
Gitta Lasslop: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Wei Li: Tsinghua University
Lars Nieradzik: Lund University
Fang Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yang Chen: University of California
James Randerson: University of California
Christopher P. O. Reyer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Matthias Mengel: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 11, 1186-1192

Abstract: Abstract Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

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